https://datavely.com/tags/%EA%B8%B0%EC%88%A0%EB%B6%84%EC%84%9D/데이터블리(Datavely) — 미국·한국 증시, 가상자산, 환율, 원자재를 팩트와 데이터로 분석하는 마켓 브리핑 블로그Hugo -- gohugo.ioko-KR© 2026 데이터블리(Datavely). All rights reserved.Wed, 18 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://datavely.com/images/brand/datavely-mark.svghttps://datavely.com/https://datavely.com/glossary/dead-cat-bounce/Wed, 18 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://datavely.com/glossary/dead-cat-bounce/급락 후 일시적으로 반등했다가 다시 하락하는 패턴. '죽은 고양이도 높은 곳에서 떨어지면 튀어 오른다'에서 유래. <h2 class="relative group">한줄 요약 <div id="한줄-요약" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%ed%95%9c%ec%a4%84-%ec%9a%94%ec%95%bd" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <p><strong>데드캣바운스 = 진짜 반등이 아닌 일시적 기술적 반등</strong></p> <h2 class="relative group">한눈에 보기 <div id="한눈에-보기" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%ed%95%9c%eb%88%88%ec%97%90-%eb%b3%b4%ea%b8%b0" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <figure><img class="my-0 rounded-md" loading="lazy" decoding="async" fetchpriority="low" alt="한눈에 보기" src="https://datavely.com/images/glossary/dead-cat-bounce.webp" ></figure> <h2 class="relative group">쉽게 이해하기 <div id="쉽게-이해하기" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%ec%89%bd%ea%b2%8c-%ec%9d%b4%ed%95%b4%ed%95%98%ea%b8%b0" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <p>공을 높은 곳에서 떨어뜨리면 한 번은 튀어 오르지만, 결국 바닥에 멈추는 것:</p> <ul> <li>급락 후 &ldquo;바닥이다!&rdquo; 하고 들어갔는데 다시 빠지는 패턴</li> <li>숏커버링(공매도 청산)이 주된 원인</li> </ul> <h2 class="relative group">데드캣바운스 vs 진짜 반등 <div id="데드캣바운스-vs-진짜-반등" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%eb%8d%b0%eb%93%9c%ec%ba%a3%eb%b0%94%ec%9a%b4%ec%8a%a4-vs-%ec%a7%84%ec%a7%9c-%eb%b0%98%eb%93%b1" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <table> <thead> <tr> <th></th> <th>데드캣바운스</th> <th>진짜 반등</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>거래량</td> <td>감소하며 반등</td> <td>증가하며 반등</td> </tr> <tr> <td>기간</td> <td>1~3일</td> <td>수주~수개월</td> </tr> <tr> <td>원인</td> <td>숏커버링, 저가 매수</td> <td>펀더멘털 개선</td> </tr> <tr> <td>이후</td> <td>전저점 이탈</td> <td>저점 높이기</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h2 class="relative group">주의사항 <div id="주의사항" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%ec%a3%bc%ec%9d%98%ec%82%ac%ed%95%ad" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>반등 중에는 구별이 불가능</strong>합니다. 사후적으로만 판단 가능.</li> <li>&ldquo;떨어지는 칼날을 잡지 마라&quot;는 격언이 여기서 나옵니다.</li> <li>데드캣바운스에서 매수하면 <strong>추가 하락에 물리는</strong> 전형적 함정.</li> </ul>기술분석https://datavely.com/glossary/momentum/Wed, 18 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://datavely.com/glossary/momentum/주가의 방향성과 힘. 상승 추세의 주식은 계속 오르고, 하락 추세는 계속 빠지는 경향. <h2 class="relative group">한줄 요약 <div id="한줄-요약" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%ed%95%9c%ec%a4%84-%ec%9a%94%ec%95%bd" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <p><strong>모멘텀 = 주가의 관성, 오르던 주식은 계속 오르려 하고 빠지던 건 계속 빠진다</strong></p> <h2 class="relative group">한눈에 보기 <div id="한눈에-보기" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%ed%95%9c%eb%88%88%ec%97%90-%eb%b3%b4%ea%b8%b0" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <figure><img class="my-0 rounded-md" loading="lazy" decoding="async" fetchpriority="low" alt="한눈에 보기" src="https://datavely.com/images/glossary/momentum.webp" ></figure> <h2 class="relative group">쉽게 이해하기 <div id="쉽게-이해하기" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%ec%89%bd%ea%b2%8c-%ec%9d%b4%ed%95%b4%ed%95%98%ea%b8%b0" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <p>달리는 기차와 같습니다:</p> <ul> <li>속도가 붙으면 쉽게 멈추지 않음 (상승 모멘텀)</li> <li>반대로 내리막에서는 가속 (하락 모멘텀)</li> <li>모멘텀이 약해지는 순간 = 전환점 신호</li> </ul> <h2 class="relative group">모멘텀 측정 지표 <div id="모멘텀-측정-지표" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%eb%aa%a8%eb%a9%98%ed%85%80-%ec%b8%a1%ec%a0%95-%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <table> <thead> <tr> <th>지표</th> <th>의미</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>RSI</td> <td>과매수(70+)/과매도(30-) 판단</td> </tr> <tr> <td>MACD</td> <td>이동평균 교차로 추세 전환 감지</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ROC</td> <td>일정 기간 수익률</td> </tr> <tr> <td>거래량</td> <td>모멘텀의 신뢰도 확인</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h2 class="relative group">모멘텀 투자 전략 <div id="모멘텀-투자-전략" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%eb%aa%a8%eb%a9%98%ed%85%80-%ed%88%ac%ec%9e%90-%ec%a0%84%eb%9e%b5" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>추세 추종</strong>: 52주 신고가 종목 매수, 신저가 매도</li> <li><strong>상대 모멘텀</strong>: 같은 시장에서 강한 종목 선별</li> <li><strong>절대 모멘텀</strong>: 양(+) 수익률이면 투자, 음(-)이면 현금</li> </ul> <h2 class="relative group">주의사항 <div id="주의사항" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%ec%a3%bc%ec%9d%98%ec%82%ac%ed%95%ad" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <ul> <li>모멘텀은 **급반전(mean reversion)**에 취약합니다.</li> <li>모멘텀 전략은 <strong>횡보장</strong>에서 잦은 손절로 수익이 깎입니다.</li> </ul>기술분석https://datavely.com/glossary/bear-market-rally/Wed, 18 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://datavely.com/glossary/bear-market-rally/하락장 중간에 나타나는 강한 반등. 상승장 전환으로 착각하기 쉽지만 추세 반전은 아닌 경우가 많다. <h2 class="relative group">한줄 요약 <div id="한줄-요약" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%ed%95%9c%ec%a4%84-%ec%9a%94%ec%95%bd" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <p><strong>베어마켓 랠리 = 하락장 속 &lsquo;가짜 봄&rsquo;, 진짜 봄인지 분간이 어렵다</strong></p> <h2 class="relative group">한눈에 보기 <div id="한눈에-보기" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%ed%95%9c%eb%88%88%ec%97%90-%eb%b3%b4%ea%b8%b0" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <figure><img class="my-0 rounded-md" loading="lazy" decoding="async" fetchpriority="low" alt="한눈에 보기" src="https://datavely.com/images/glossary/bear-market-rally.webp" ></figure> <h2 class="relative group">쉽게 이해하기 <div id="쉽게-이해하기" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%ec%89%bd%ea%b2%8c-%ec%9d%b4%ed%95%b4%ed%95%98%ea%b8%b0" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <p>겨울에 갑자기 따뜻한 날이 오면 &ldquo;봄이 왔나?&rdquo; 싶지만 다시 추워지는 것:</p> <ul> <li>하락장에서 10~20% 반등 → &ldquo;드디어 바닥!&rdquo; → 다시 하락</li> <li>2008년 금융위기 때 이런 베어마켓 랠리가 <strong>6번</strong> 있었음</li> </ul> <h2 class="relative group">역사적 베어마켓 랠리 <div id="역사적-베어마켓-랠리" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%ec%97%ad%ec%82%ac%ec%a0%81-%eb%b2%a0%ec%96%b4%eb%a7%88%ec%bc%93-%eb%9e%a0%eb%a6%ac" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <table> <thead> <tr> <th>시기</th> <th>반등폭</th> <th>이후</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>2008.3 (Bear Stearns 구제)</td> <td>+12%</td> <td>다시 -45%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2008.10 (TARP 통과)</td> <td>+19%</td> <td>다시 -28%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020.3 (1차 반등)</td> <td>+17%</td> <td>다시 -10% 후 진짜 반등</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2022.6~8</td> <td>+17%</td> <td>다시 -17%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h2 class="relative group">구별 팁 (참고용) <div id="구별-팁-참고용" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%ea%b5%ac%eb%b3%84-%ed%8c%81-%ec%b0%b8%ea%b3%a0%ec%9a%a9" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <ul> <li>거래량이 동반 증가하는지 확인</li> <li>경기 선행지표(PMI, 신규주문)가 반등하는지</li> <li>신용 스프레드가 축소되는지</li> </ul> <h2 class="relative group">주의사항 <div id="주의사항" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#%ec%a3%bc%ec%9d%98%ec%82%ac%ed%95%ad" aria-label="앵커">#</a> </span> </h2> <ul> <li>베어마켓의 <strong>가장 큰 상승일</strong>은 대부분 하락 추세 중에 발생합니다.</li> <li>현재가 베어마켓 랠리인지 진짜 반등인지는 <strong>사후에만 알 수 있습니다</strong>.</li> </ul>기술분석